GBP/USD's recovery from 1.6534 extended higher and intraday bias remains neutral for more consolidative trading. But upside of recovery should be limited by 1.6737 resistance and bring fall resumption. Below 1.6534 will extend the fall from 1.7190 to 1.6251 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.4813 to 1.7190 at 1.6282).
In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidations to long term down trend from 2.1161. The current development, with medium term top formed at 1.7190, argues that such consolidation is possibly completed, just below 50% retracement from 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332. Focus now turns to 55 weeks EMA (now at 1.6508). Sustained trading there will pave the way for 1.4813 key support and below.
In the longer term picture, we're sticking on to the view that price actions from 1.3503 are forming the fourth wave of the five wave sequence from 2.1161. That means, firstly, 1.3503 shouldn't be the end point of the downtrend yet and a new low is expected. However, secondly, as the next fall could be the fifth wave, the breach of 1.3503 could be shallow and brief from long term point of view and we'll then see a more sustainable rebound.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidations to long term down trend from 2.1161. The current development, with medium term top formed at 1.7190, argues that such consolidation is possibly completed, just below 50% retracement from 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332. Focus now turns to 55 weeks EMA (now at 1.6508). Sustained trading there will pave the way for 1.4813 key support and below.
In the longer term picture, we're sticking on to the view that price actions from 1.3503 are forming the fourth wave of the five wave sequence from 2.1161. That means, firstly, 1.3503 shouldn't be the end point of the downtrend yet and a new low is expected. However, secondly, as the next fall could be the fifth wave, the breach of 1.3503 could be shallow and brief from long term point of view and we'll then see a more sustainable rebound.
