USD/JPY rose to as high as 103.08 so far and reached mentioned target of 100% projection of 100.82 to 102.79 from 101.06 at 103.03 already. Intraday bias remains on the upside and further rally could be seen towards 104.12 resistance. Nonetheless, as the pair is still bounded in the sideway pattern from 100.75, we'd be cautious on strong resistance below 104.12 to limit upside. On the downside, below 102.59 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring retreat first.
In the bigger picture, at this point, there is no confirmation of medium term reversal yet even though bearish divergence condition was clear in weekly MACD. Attention remains on 100.61 key support level and decisive break there will confirm the bearish case. In that case, deeper decline should be seen back to 38.2% retracement o 75.56 to 105.41 at 94.00. In case of another rise, we'll focus on reversal as it approaches 50% retracement of 147.68 to 75.56 at 111.62.
